Published by Basic Books
At the end of the Second World War, America and its allies set out to create a new liberal international order designed to peacefully resolve conflicts, regulate global finance, and ultimately ensure rules-based international exchange. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 sparked optimism, with many believing the objective had finally been achieved. Democracy had triumphed over autocracy, and globalisation had made the concept of Great Powers a thing of the past.
Such high hopes proved to be short-lived. They faced their first real test when Vladimir Putin initially annexed Crimea and then invaded Ukraine. Thereafter, democracy found itself very much on the defensive against a rising tide of authoritarianism. Worse was to follow when, under President Donald Trump, the United States, the original architect, effectively opted out of the post-WWII order with its emphasis on international law and economic cooperation.
What we began to witness, instead, was a return to the politics of raw power.
In this scholarly, well-paced and critical overview, author Brendan Simms, a professor in the history of international relations and fellow at Peterhouse, Cambridge, shows how this brief period of internationalism came to an end and was replaced by the return of the rivalries of the great powers.
He also details how the other major role players, but not quite Great Powers (Japan, France, Germany, India and the European Union), have struggled to adapt to the return of Trump, the rise of China and the Russian attack on Ukraine. For many years the main challenge facing the EU, for example, was having to deal with its internal fissures. That situation has now dramatically changed. Trapped between an ascendant, authoritarian China, a belligerent, paranoid Russia and an increasingly hostile, unpredictable USA, Europe’s strategic predicament is now its main preoccupation.
In the next portion of the book, Simms shows how the four great powers of our era (the United States, China, Russia and the United Kingdom) rose to their positions of prominence.
The unprecedented ascent of China after the trauma of Western and Japanese imperialism and subjugation has, indeed, been one of the most striking developments of recent history. It is now the second-largest economy in the world next to the United States, whilst it manufacturing sector surpasses it.
With the ending of the Cold War, during the Reagan/Gorbachev era, it briefly seemed that there might be some sort of rapprochement between the United States and Russia. That hope was soon extinguished when a little known securocrat named Vladimir Putin came to power. Determined to restore his country to its former great-power status, his subsequent invasion of Ukraine marked a clear rejection of multi-national cooperation as envisaged by the West, even if he completely misjudged Ukraine’s capacity to fight back.
Despite the loss of its Empire and its withdrawal from Europe, Simms still regards the UK as a major player. He bases this assessment in large part on the country’s continuing economic and military power, even though this is less than what it was in days gone by. The other Great Power is obviously the United States. Despite the geopolitical chaos unleashed by its impulsive, erratic president, he believes it will also continue to remain an economic and military powerhouse.
Looking to the future, Simms’s view is that, at this stage, a revived liberal international system is unlikely and that the world will continue to be dominated by Great Power competition. This rivalry will, in turn, have the unfortunate consequence of preventing any really decisive international cooperation to deal with the major existential threats facing humanity. His brief mention of South Africa is not exactly comforting either. Although historically a leading force, he believes it is now too wracked by corruption and internal struggles to be considered a major contender on the world stage.
Supple, fluent and sure-footed, The Return of the Great Powers provides a masterful overview of the struggles, tensions and conflicts that have created the modern world, as well as giving us some indication of where we might be headed. As Simms concludes, much will depend on whether the Western elites are able to reach some sort of accommodation with the Eurasian autocracies. At this stage, the omens are not exactly auspicious…
